Saturday 17th March 2018 - Incomplete denial

You said that midgets, web-jerks and politics are incomplete with their denial. What have you done and discovered in finances ?

There is a short summary for things you should give up and forget

In early 1990's shifted focus from storages to consumers. In late 1980's companies started to build products with Just-On-Time philosophies. Up till late 1980's companies build products to storages. The financial trends were evaluated with the amount of unsold stuff in storages. As an example could tell, that in 1930's my great uncles purchased brand new A-Ford to their truck company ... five years after Ford stopped manufacturing.

For Africa project developed theorem / system, with what you can drag poor countries from poverty. When you pay reasonable wages and leave profits into country, where it borns, it always boosts local economies. Policies creates wealthier consumers to your and your affiliates companies. Although simple, it is sensational, because no knew how to do that. It took years to develop the system.

Then there is that Blacksmith theorem. It explains why and where we need money. Explains also how money works.

I have resolved stock-markets connection to real-life economies. Stock markets and prices have one-to-one connection to dividends and revenues. In common company price is connected to current revenues and dividends. In fast growing company price comes from the expected revenues and dividends. At some point the prices start to mix, and finally fast growing company falls into common companies. The very first deep worldwide dive in stock markets in 1929, follows the connection : Companies like General electrics, Ford and GM failed to meet the investor-owners expectations.

"Great Gray Bath / Triangle" explains dependencies in between inflation, growth and interest rates. It is impossible to create growth without inflation. Interest rates must follow growth and inflation. Most from the inflation comes from the hikes in domestic wages. If inflation is higher than interest rates, capital vanishes. Nowadays free capital escapes from your country, drains your businesses. One way or another production moves into countries, with balanced financial system.

"The creation of growth requires job creation" theorem belongs to my widespread releases. There are quite a many details inside the theorem. Productive, commercial jobs creates real life growth. Public jobs increases tax-debt oriented growth. Replacement of current jobs with better paid jobs is third key thing in the growth creation theorem. Important in countries with high welfare levels and/or low unemployment rates.

When you fail with the basics, you are 100% sure to fail in practice too.

Besides these 6 majors, there are smaller theorems and practical applications from the big six. 

When midgets, politics and other St. Peters start to talk about money, they always insult me. Violate my credits. Far from complete with their denial.

Money and work are the things, from which people are most interested. When I started, the way global and local economies work, were poorly known. I am personally not that interested in money. Push towards money and finances began right after my graduation. Push came from Netherlands - USA ... institutes, which are nowadays best known as Boys sponsors. Had quite a job after graduation. Had to study computer programming and book keeping from almost scratch.

Thursday, 5th March 2015: 7.00 GMT - Dividends dictate stock prices

From the above you find the original release from Jack Answers. It was later described with more detail at the bottom of the "Great Gray Bath" page.

There are two exceptions to dividend oriented stock price. Stock for a company, which has lots of interest amongst public funds customers, can have unrealistic price. When so, public funds buy these stocks for attracting customer-investors. When you sell major owning from a company, price raises temporarily ... for a year or two ... to unreasonably high levels.

From the balance sheet loans and assets have a small meaning to dividends. Wealthy company can pay additional dividends. Company, which is drowning to debts, have to spend money to loans. It reduces the dividends. Revenues are always base for the dividends. If your revenues are $100 billions, market capital one trillion, you should pay at least $50 billion dividends to your owners. Before dividends you must ... at the moment, in Christmas 2019  ... put tax money aside, before paying dividends. Your liabilities after bottom line, result before taxes, are $70-$90 billions.

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Morning darling, I love you. Nothing special here. 

Did some new science to economies in the past. Theory about the global economies mostly to myself and my personal needs. Guidelines for evaluating stock value has been used very widely. It is based on yearly revenues and dividends. 

When we talk about steady company - like the one which manufactures clothes, cars, etc - the estimation is made from from the current and past. The cost of company is usually near the yearly revenues : The interest for the invested capital comes from the dividends. When company / business sector operates with big surplus - like big software companies - the surplus raises company's market value and stock price.

When we talk about growing companies, businesses and economies, the estimation from future revenues / dividends are included to the value. These guidelines are not dictated. Draw the guidelines after researching the stock markets and listed companies. Tried to find out, how investors act.

When major owner give up from a good, rich and profitable company, the stock price raises a lot. Big sales are so rare. My funds and their allies for example got big premiums from Nokia and Daimler-Benz. After the sell-out, the price stays high quite a long time.

Have a good day.

- - Upgrades - -

 

Saturday 16th June 2018 - Lack of oil and raising oil prices kills the economical growth

Enormous consumption, limited drilling capacity and limited ground oil resources have connected oil into our economies. When economies start to grow, oil price starts to raise. Eventually the hike in oil and electricity prices kills the growth.

Oil consumption is bigger than food consumption. Daily worldwide food consumption is less 6 million tons, oil consumption is 10.5 million tons.

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How long you have known, that bailout countries need new energy policies for getting growth to their economies ?
Around one week. Released the data after I figured it out. It finalizes the idea, that world needs more energy. Have been busy for quite a long time. Hadn't had time to think the global energy system thoroughly before ... how it should go with unlimited consumption. Clue to the answer came from history and time, when unlimited consumption was possible. Seven years ago, when I collected historical data around oil, noticed that oil price was steady before 1973 crisis. Hardly anyone remember those times clearly anymore.

From the picture you see development from recent years. The connection in between oil price and stock markets is very clear.
Currently with steady global growth oil should cost over $100 per barrel. Asian growth and declining North Sea reserves boosts price all the time.
From the picture you can also see the future expectation. Stock markets usually reacts before oil price and economies.

- There was a small recession in 2002, outside the picture. Can see it from financial table.
- 2006 fall cut the two decade long increase in western wages, related earlier. 2009 recession shows well
- 2014 Halloween Hacks shows well, too. After everything was hacked oil fell to around $40 per barrel.

Without oil-from-sugar and new policies you can never get rid of the connection and the curve.

19th June 2018 : 
Oil producers and oil companies got lots of money from Asian growth. Tripled their incomes from oil.
So it is. Great deal from the Cash for wankers debts slipped into oil producers pockets and welfare. USA and ruling EU countries have consumed most from the oil. In 1973-74 crisis raised price to 6 times bigger. In 1980 price had risen from $1.80 to $36.83 per barrel. In 2008 oil price peaked to $180 from 1990's average, which was $17.

Logarithmic table from oil price. After WWII, in 1947 price rose to around $2. Price was steady 26 years.

In 1973 USA allied with Jews, when they should've make allies with Arabs.
USA's hard currency time took place right after 1980. Oil price fell in 1986, when Iraq and Iran ended long war. 30% peak in 1990 came from Iraq's attack to Kuwait. 1997 fall came from midgets and western politics ( their central banks ) attacks against emerging countries with big sell outs of foreign currencies. As you can see from the chart, the hoped long term effect was never reached.

Is oil-from-sugar profitable ?
It does not matter much. As you can see from the above, when global economies and oil consumption grows, oil price raises. It stops to the level, where oil-from-sugar becomes profitable and attractive. Sugar is currently secondary product for farmers. Unlike corn it is farmed in it's original form. By the time sugar will get cultivated, climate adjusted, kinds, which will give bigger harvests. Have a hunch, that farms in warm, poorer country are profitable with lower prices. In warm area harvests are big, in poorer country labor costs are low.

In actual Africa project oil farms were a way to prevent food-corn prices from collapsing. Globally talking there is already too much food. Hunger is poverty and welfare related problem. Poor country cannot afford to buy food from the global markets. When draught or monsoons hit, you cannot buy much imported food with average $1000 yearly earnings per capita.

23rd June 2018 - Inflation has a one-to-one connection to domestic wages

This very important research verifies the connection in between wages and inflation. When politics and midgets fight against inflation, they fight for your misery, and national stagnation.

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This chart verifies inflations connection to domestic wages and domestic growth. Very easy to see how inflation follows wages.
- lower curve is inflation percent 
- upper curve is change in average wage per hour for the same year, in percents.

After 1973 oil crisis bouncing oil price started to affect into inflation. It broke the earlier crystal clear connection.

Wages show common beliefs and memories about the recessions better than GDP and GDP per capita. There aren't stats or data for business output ( net domestic product ). Early 1990's and 2002 recessions for example shows only in oil price and wage hikes.

From the wage chart you see how WWI and WWII increased wages a lot. During big war you suffer from the lack of workforce at the same time production grows. The increase in production must be funded with public loans, because the new production is spent to warfare. The price you eventually get from the produced things is zero. Your nation can never get a single cent from the produced / purchased ammo, guns, tanks, planes, etc.

You can also see how difficult year 2009 was. It was the worst recession after 1930's and the first time wages fell after 1958.

How long does it take, before you fully understand trillions ?
You have to play with trillions some time, before you start to understand how much money one trillion actually is. And how much trillion is, when compared to billion. When you talk about for example national debts, you get better understanding, when you divide over $20 trillion national debt to citizens. $20 trillion national debt means that US government  has taken over $60 000 loan to each US citizen.

ATS sites yearly value was over 2 trillions.
So it was. Shows well. 

Wednesday 25th July 2018 - Saturation system 

Saturation system comes true, when you bring brand new products to markets. When you do so, there are lots of people, who has money and interest to buy the new best selling product. During this time sales grows year after year with big numbers. After all potentials have purchased new product, the fast growth dies. In western world, fast growth ends suddenly. The sales falls into replacement sales.

If you haven't reached western levels yet, fast growth is followed by moderate growth. Fast growing national economy produces new potential buyers to the product all the time.

Saturation system is an old thing. I only published the system with words and numbers. In the past IBM and IT world tried to keep the sales up by brining new things to computers and software on regular basis. Car manufacturers does the same. Car manufacturers makes small changes to their models every year. Models are re-designed with 4 to 8 year period. Successful redesign is well known and verified to bring major gains in sales.

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How do you calculate saturation ?
With a simple spreadsheet calculation. On the right you can see the calculation for Chinese car sales. With 10 % growth, 20 million initial sales. Total number or cars in the beginning of calculation is 63 millions.

First you estimate how many people will buy the apparatus. In emerging economy you get the saturation from western world. With population and saturation you can calculate total number of actively used apparatuses.

Then you either estimate or check the growth. With yearly growth you can calculate the total amount of apparatuses. In accurate, long term calculation you remove the apparatuses which are trashed. If apparatuses life span is 15 years, you subtract the number of devices built 15 years ago from the totals. When you start the calculation with existing base, you add the existing number of apparatuses to the totals.

The fast growth ends, when count reaches the saturation. After that sales goes with replacements.

After China reaches 500 million goal, yearly sales-production falls from 60 millions to 33 millions. Difficult to control the system. All big businesses boosts the current trend : Car manufacturing gives people money to buy cars. 

If you try to control the system, there is a danger, that you convert the growing businesses into shrinking businesses. After the trend falls into negative direction, it is difficult to get the growth back. On the other hand it is kids play to convert positive to negative.

Quite often an attempt to get the growth back, accelerates the negative development. If company for example launches massive and expensive advertising campaign for boosting the sales and it fails, the money which was spent to the campaign increases the losses. Big and expensive ad-campaign in commercial media needs big boost to revenues. There are many products, whose overall sales-revenues are so small, that ad campaign is certain to produce losses. Modern recession usually begins with a boost in advertising. After that advertising falls into marginal levels.

In 1920's Germany didn't fall in to hyperinflation and recession because of car manufacturing.
No. There are many explanations for the reasons. Germany tried to get out from recession with cars. Germans started to build first autobahn and design VW 1200 at around 1930. Few years before Hitler got power. Hitler delayed both projects with 17 years. He didn't have interest, money and resources for civil production. German autobahn and car manufacturing started in 1950. Germany missed Roman time roadways. Romans built roads to Italy. France and Britain. Germany united in 19th century, it missed older national road network. Current autobahn network is the first countrywide road network in the area. West Germans built the network directly as 4 lane highway system. Got famous from it. 

Hitler managed to drop all European car makers behind US makers. WWII drained Europe, money and resources were needed for reconstruction. It forced Europeans to build small and cheap cars. At the same time US makers built bigger and better cars. North-east Asia started to recover from WWII at around year 1960. Ten years after Europe. Cars and car manufacturing were about to come to Asia and Japan, when WWII began.

Japanese emperor Hirohito was obviously a suicidal madman. He declared war to neutral country [USA], which outnumbered him and Japan with troops and tech. With big numbers. Japanese Zero planes had small fuel tanks. Hirohito killed his pilots without hesitation. Kamikaze pilots were sometimes sent to mission, without having enough fuel for flying back to base in Japan. Sometimes pilots used planes as bombs. After dropping the bomb, they flew directly to target. In warfare minimization of own losses always leads to best results. Finns have also declared war against impossible enemy. In the beginning of WWII, they declared war to Soviet Union. War went without surprises, Finns lost the war after six months. War declarations and attacks against impossible enemy are very rare. Usually it goes so, that impossible enemy attacks, and you try to defend. You enforce your borders and wait for the attack. When you stand behind enforced border, you do not need as much man and firepower as the attacker. New beam weapons reduces importance of air force. They are fast, accurate and undetectable. On-ground anti-aircraft beam gun can reach enemy planes from surprisingly high altitudes. You can minimize the dispersion with design, maximize the range with powerful pump.

31st July 2018 - Soft hyper inflation

Soft hyper inflation is modern way, how economies responds to reckless bank note printing and related reckless debt taking. When your politics and midgets pushes busloads of extra money into markets, it results into soft hyper inflation. In the past hyper inflation hit economies suddenly. Economies collapsed in few days into extremely fast inflation. 

In soft hyper inflation your net incomes, after taxes, food and living costs shrinks. In this US oriented cheat-invention, prices raises more than your actual net incomes. In intentional soft hyperinflation cheat your net incomes are hit with taxing, hikes in food, heating, electricity and rent / fees. Although everything looks fine, you get poorer and poorer all the time.

Soft hyper inflation is related many times in here. Began to study the thing after I purchased Caprice. From Caprice I didn't find a reason for the death of traditional full sized American car. Big V8 engines fuel consumption for example was at tolerable levels. Reason was, that US people got so poor, that they couldn't buy those big anymore. The major fall in living standards didn't show in financial statistics. When recent excessive oil import was combined with raising oil prices, it resulted into invisible soft hyper inflation, that exhausted US people. Great deal from the statistical growth went into oil producer countries. 

After Texas-USA run out of oil, oil prices rose over 500%. From $2 to $10-20. Emerging Asian markets have boasted oil prices with another 500%. In theory, sugar oil price could fall to $2 barrel. Estimated production price is so small, that the profit margin for oil would be over 100%. Unfortunately there is not enough deserted places for farming oil with $2 retail prices.

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How can USA and few other countries show big growth numbers ?
Usually you find the answer from federal debts.  In early 2010's, when USA defaulted, federal debt reached US GDP. Nowadays federal debt is 10% higher than US GDP. After oil crisis, president Clinton and his governments are the only ones, who have lowered federal debt's share from GDP.

When debt grows more than GDP, country is running on losses. Citizens welfare usually falls, because long term losses tend to lead into soft-hyper inflation. In soft hyper-inflation prices and inflation grows more than wages. Soft hyper-inflation is almost invisible.

You got to go 10 years back in time and compare that time to your current situation. 10 ten years ago we had much more money to spend into our holidays, weekends, traveling, cars, furniture, home improvements and so on.

After your president, chancellor or prime minister gets the soft-hyper inflation properly going, you pay last years debts with this year's wage-inflation system. GDP grows at the same time, poverty and misery spreads. Politics and midgets shines, at the same time you fall deeper and deeper into misery and poverty. In hyper-inflation poverty and misery explodes into national economy in a very short time.

The soft hyper-inflation can lead to same than common hyper inflation. The domestic currency's nominal value falls to marginal levels. Loser's of WWII ended into soft hyper-inflation. Japan and Hungary have still low nominal values in their currencies. Italian lire had also very low nominal value, when Italy took Euro to use. Finns cut two zeros from their currency in 1963. West and East Germany replaced their currencies after WWII.

Soft hyper inflation ends few years after country stops net lending. Recovery comes from growth and down payments of the loans. If soft hyper inflation falls far behind net lending ( including creation of fake money ), there is a danger, that a violent hyper inflation corrects the financial anomaly.

The earlier wage-inflation comparison is the second in it's kind. It is the only way to detect cancer-like soft-hyper inflation. It is invisible in other financial stats. It is the thing, which hides recessions from the common financial stats. Wage-inflation is an application from Triangle theorem.

The broken American everyday dream is the first research around soft-hyper inflation. It is different and more complicated than wage-inflation stat. Unfortunately I deleted calculations and stats, I made for the story.

The US recession in early 1980's is good example from the soft-hyper inflation. US economies grew with big numbers, US inflation stayed behind growth. And yet, there was a deep recession in USA then. You can find busloads of documents, which refers to the deep recession in early 1980's USA.

When country has freely floating currency, the soft-hyper inflation shows in exchange rate. Nowadays almost all small currencies are bound to some major currency ( US dollar, Euro, Chinese Juan and Japanese Yen ). When so, soft hyper inflation does not show in small currency. Major currencies have more or less fixed exchange rates and the soft hyper inflation does not show in exchange rates. Exchange rate affects to the import and export prices. It is used for balancing export prices and citizens welfare ... citizens capability to buy imported goods. 

When you give up from your own currency, and start to use major currency, you lose the chance to balance your import-export system. In Europe all most troubled countries are Euro countries, countries which misses a chance to boost local exports at the expense of citizens welfare. In USA, China and India states can have different kind of financial statuses. In these countries, states forms EU country like smaller financial systems.

What is welfare ?
Modern welfare is connected to your earnings and net income. Soft-hyper inflation reduces your net income.

Your net income is the money which is left after you have paid taxes, food, rent-mortgages, kids education, healthcare insurances and retirement fees.
- If you are on the red already after these, you are not doing very well.
- If you are on the red and you spend more money to living and eating than needed ( people in average ), you are in poverty trap
- The cost of calorie allows you to get away from red, or alternatively improve your welfare and net income.

Then we must check, what you can buy with your net income, from the domestic shops. How long it takes to save money for new car ? How many times a year you can make a longer trip to a distant theme park. How many cigarettes you can afford to smoke in one day ? How many times a month you can go to restaurant ? The more you can buy with your net income, the better you are doing.

Separation to welfare, emerging and poor countries comes from the relative purchase power. In welfare countries, imported products from poorer countries, are cheap to buy. You use the net income to buy domestic and foreign products. Since imported products are cheap in welfare countries, you can buy more than people in poorer countries. On the other hand, products from welfare countries are expensive to buy in poorer countries.

How long you have puzzled with finances ?
I was around 10, when I made my first financial statistic or listing. After that I had a long break. Cannot remember anything special before the age of 25. Made a research about the prices of the second hand cars, when I was in college. Much the same than the movie gross calculator from the year 2010. Subject was different. The calculators belong to 2nd state science. You create a formula from the set of observances.

Why did you release Soft Hyper Inflation ?
Kind of a response to President Trump's, his midgets and others latest. Brand new thing in economies prevents gas pump economists to play bold with my earlier financial releases and breakthroughs. Soft hyper inflation is difficult to discover and explain. Gave soft hyper inflation related advise, "keep inflation below growth", without being capable of saying why. There are things in finances you know, but you cannot explain properly. It makes it easy for the gas pump people to play bold with existing data. Better than ever responses to the original gas pump jerks are also on this page.

Still many unexplained things left ?
Don't know. Not necessarily very many. Africa project and it's derivates have given good answers to many questions. My personal usage theory about Global Finances is almost completely released nowadays. Couldn't release it earlier, because it missed so many things.

Number of inquires around economies falls all the time. Asians misses great ancient scientists ?
Asians concentrated to psychological, mental philosophies. Then they had problem with simple script. Difficult to explain new things. Write down observations and conclusions around them. Old Asian writings are much like pre-historical discoveries. You can take them however you wish, not that detailed. Nowadays all releases are written in English. Ancient Greeks had alphabet, it had letters from A to O, Alfa to Omega.

23rd January 2020 - Micro Investments

There is a micro investments institute coming for emerging and poor countries. Partially charitable system gives you capital and help for establishing a business. Then you can get help for running the business and marketing / distributing the products. System co-operates with Boys sponsors, who has worldwide marketing network. If you have a good product with reasonable-attractive price, the whole world is open for you via this network.

Institute works with risk investors, traditional record and movie companies principle. The non-profitable time, losses and failures are financed with successful investments. Failed business does not lead into debt hell, like it happens with loan and micro loan based business foundation. Developed the micro investments, after I estimated and calculated interests for micro loan banking system  In micro investments payback comes with dividends. Yearly dividends are dependent on your revenues and profits ... your chances to pay from the investment. Yearly dividends are divided by ownership. Besides yearly dividends you pay wage to yourself, from the revenues.

Typical western company owner-runner owns 5% to 30% from the company. When so, it is possible, that you got to finance 5% from the initial capital. With initial capital, you launch the company. Get space, buy tools, etc. for running the company. If the company defaults, you lose your share from the initial capital.  If you want to, you can later buy the company or bigger part from it to yourself. 

The things you do with your company can be anything. You can make products, have a team that constructs buildings, bakery where you make food, and so on.  Then you can provide services, like for example run cafeteria, offer hair cuts to people, repair bicycles. You can run a shop, where you sell food, flowers, hardware, farming and cattle keeping stuff, computers, bikes, coffins for funerals and so on. 

The initial size of your company can vary from self-employed to around 100 people company. Final size can be much more bigger than initial. Self employed one man-woman companies, which never grows, are also possible.

When you run a company, you got to take-or-print voucher from every purchase and sales you do for company. Sales and purchases are booked into book keeping system. At the end of the year, the difference in between sales and purchases are the result. From the positive result you pay the dividends and company's taxes.

Micro investments provides you the accountant, book keeping and payroll systems. You get bank account and lending-legal services from affiliated bank. If your company grows enough, it will be listed to stock markets. After listing you become a millionaire or billionaire.

Local micro investment branch will be run by your fellow citizens. Micro investment system is certain to come to you with sugar field systems. Target is that micro investments spreads into all emerging and poorer countries. With time micro investment branch grows and changes into a common public fund.

In Western World micro investments is one way to do charity, without doing charity. When you buy a share from micro investment funds, you co-operate with the people in poorer countries. You give them capital and work, without maximized expectations for personal gains.

Micro investment funds are one of the best ways to join and support Africa project. Project, which is to remove hunger, poverty and misery from our world. Micro investments are commercial businesses, running costs are minimized by default. Most from the running costs goes to target country. And to the people, who works for local branch. Fundraising takes place alongside with other investment products, banks and public funds offers for western people and companies. The earlier spreading is dependent on popularity of the micro investment funds and general interest towards micro investments and better life in target countries.

Creation of the required domestic food, furniture and construction businesses is difficult without micro investments.

Honesty is key to many good, widely wanted things. United Nations and Mickey Mouse Fan Clubs sensational, exaggerated stories about misery in Africa works against improvements in Africans living conditions. These stories scares and keeps common businesses away from Africa.

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June 16th 2018 : Campaign against nuclear plants - Everyone is on board.